I think its a little early to say the model is broken, it's only the 15th of Sept.

yes hatchery fish in Lake Washington and the Green are higher than normal, and they are defiantly the normal early component of the run have been for a few years now, but that doesn't mean everything is rosey.

I have not yet seen a jumper in the Sky, or the Snohomish for that matter.
I have not been by the Wallace to look at the rack yet so don't know how that is. but it has been my experience that fishing for coho in the Snohomish system really doesn't kick in til Oct. Many years I do better in Nov.
I noticed the patterns change about 10 years ago. so I would say we need to wait and see for at least another month.

my other thought is I know from the reg's I read for Canada, they attempted to reduce their catch of our coho this year. I didn't think it would be a huge difference but maybe that's what we are seeing. and I think they are aiming high for hitting their own coho starting in Oct. and that may bang a lot of Snohomish fish... the Nov. group....

to me the data is not all in yet.