The data on smolts is very interesting. Mortality, at least in all the studies I looked at, was highest early in the individual's migration. Loss rates were highest in the first few kilometres of migration. It is as if the fish, when it converts from a stream resident to migrant faces new challenges, new predators, etc. that take a while to learn. Once learned, survival per km is better. The loss was also rather equal, on a per km basis, for hatchery and wild.

That said, there was a real problem for fish having to pass Tacoma Narrows on the way out. White River Chinook, released as yearlings from Hupp/Minter survived at a lower rate than fingerling White Rivers released from the MIT facility on the White. Conventional wisdom and management models tell us yearlings survive way better than fingerlings.

I still maintain that while this tagging data is great and much needed it tells us only what is happening today. We know that OVERALL marine survival appears to be down but just because the number leaving the Straits is low does not mean that in-Sound mortality is the problem. Unless there is some old data on in-Sound survivals.

Plus, for steelhead, I have asked and asked and nobody on the Pacific Coast was able to provide me with a good data set (real, not indexed escapement, whole brood-year ages) where the R/S even equaled 1. Repeat spawners are critical. We do know that if the smolts are younger, a stream produces more so the same stream will produce more age 1 than it can age 2 and so on. So, as we keep stream productivity low, we produce fewer smolts form the same habitat. A downward spiral. Fewer smolts, fewer repeats, ...............