I thought the Chehalis coho estimate seemed possible. When I look at the gill net harvest compared to the model I would guess that the 2017 actual total Chehalis coho run size will be about 44,000 compared with the model run size of 66,265.

The PDO temperature data for 2017 indicates that the ocean is becoming more favorable to survival. The Feb-May PDO in 2017 was 1.42 degrees cooler than in 2016. The correlation of PDO to run size would result in a line with an inverse slope of 36,000 fish per degree. The hedge is that there is a lot of variability and a broad confidence interval around the 36,000 fish value.

Based on this my own guess is a 2018 run size of 44,000 from last year plus 51,000 due to the improving PDO for a total run size estimate of 95,000.