http://www.pcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/2017_Preseason_Report_I_03MAR17_final2.pdf

I looked up the Grays Harbor numbers on that document. The forecast model is pretty worthless in our neck-o-da-woods.

The most recent 10 years with a full pre-post complement showed the forecast was achieved or exceeded half the time. In 3 of those 5, the actual return was nearly double the forecast.

The forecast failed to materialize as expected the other half of the time. In 3 of those 5, the forecast exceeded the actual return by a factor of OVER 2:1.... 2.2, 2.5, and 4.5-fold.

That's not to say GH isn't a phenomenal wild producer of coho... it most clearly can be ( ex nearly 200K wild coho in 2014). As can the Skagit and Snohomish systems.... all three have comparable potential to NATURALLY produce mega-runs of coho.