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#1016201 - 10/23/19 10:57 AM Re: Willapa Policy Reveiw [Re: eyeFISH]
Rivrguy Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/03/09
Posts: 4394
Loc: Somewhere on the planet,I hope
The Willapa Policy (WP) was and is victim to things gone bad. From the beginning it was dependent on commercial fisheries being selective and particularly alternate low mortality harvest methods. Never happened for many reasons all which should have been anticipated. Then additional funding was provided by the legislature to bring the Naselle Chinook production to the 2.5 million release goal to add additional opportunities for both Rec & Commercial interest. With the loss of the north bay fisheries with the Folks Cr. 90% reduction both Rec & Commercial were both going to be primarily in the South Bay. The South Bay lacks infrastructure to support large numbers of Rec fishers and the fishing areas are not user friendly. Same goes for the Commercial fishers. Grass, crabs, sharks, just about everything that makes it difficult for any harvester. The WP also mandated escapement goals for the natural spawners in the Naselle further limiting Commercial harvest as did Rec priority on Chinook.

Simply put you ended up with large numbers of hatchery production adults returning into the unfavorable conditions Doc identified. This results in substantial mortalities of not just the hatchery adults but the wild adults that are mixed in with them. There is no upside to the expanded production of 2.5 million Chinook smolt at Naselle Hatchery. Then WDFW added to another 2.5 million for a total of 5 million Chinook smolt at Naselle for the Orcas. The Nemah does not have natural production concerns but will suffer similar problems keeping returning adults alive for eggtake.

For the sake of discussion let us ask this question. If they make the 5 million eggtake at Naselle what happens when the adults return? The stream and facility cannot handle the much smaller release number returning adults so how can one reasonably expect that they will succeed with nearly double or more?

The Commercials will argue for a expanded wipe out fishery to harvest the adults to insure the stream is not over loaded. The Rec fishers will have a limited impact due to the difficulties outlined. Conservation minded folks will argue stay the course and follow the policy ( which WDFW has not done ) but the problem remains.

Simply put wrong fish, wrong hatchery, wrong place. The Southern bay hatcheries will never escape the circumstances that are causing the current difficulties. The only hatchery in the Willapa Bay that can rear & release large numbers of Chinook smolt and capture returning adults with a high survival rate is Forks Ck. on the Willapa River.







Edited by Rivrguy (10/23/19 01:19 PM)
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#1016216 - 10/23/19 06:27 PM Re: Willapa Policy Reveiw [Re: Rivrguy]
Geoduck Offline
Returning Adult

Registered: 08/10/02
Posts: 437
Any objective evaluation will recognize the utter management failure that the new WB policy has been. We took the top small boat chinook recreational chinook fishery and one of the top commercial non-treaty chinook fisheries in the state and have essentially eliminated them both, while spending more money on hatcheries, and realizing no conservation benefit. It is the definition of perfect mismanagement-- they have simultaneously minimized benefit for all competing sectors with their decisions. Who would have thought that was even possible a decade ago?

I am afraid there will be no change in WB until there is a major shakeup in senior management at WDFW. It is clear the senior managers have decided the course is irrevocably set, that facts are irrelevant, and WB fisheries are expendable. That was apparent about 6 years ago and nothing has changed since.

The commission apparently lacks the courage for any substantive change in management approach, so we're stuck with this mess.

The only meaningful recourse would appear to be political or legal. Logic, reason, and data carry no weight at WDFW when it comes to WB.

The whole thing is so very very disappointing.
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#1016218 - 10/23/19 07:50 PM Re: Willapa Policy Reveiw [Re: Rivrguy]
Carcassman Online   content
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7413
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
I've said it before, but management in WB is what WDFW wants to do. It represents the best management, best concepts, the best of everything. They don't have to ask the Tribes' permission, they don't have NOAA, they don't have to deal with Canadian net fisheries as PS does.

Maybe when we badmouth the Tribes and Feds we should ask ourselves if WB is what we want.

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#1016235 - 10/24/19 08:55 AM Re: Willapa Policy Reveiw [Re: Rivrguy]
Salmo g. Offline
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Registered: 03/08/99
Posts: 13521
Carcassman, seems like another way of saying it that WB equals the very best of WDFW, given that the Department is beholden to no other entity. Now that's just plain scary.

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#1016241 - 10/24/19 11:34 AM Re: Willapa Policy Reveiw [Re: Rivrguy]
Carcassman Online   content
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7413
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
It is Salmo. WB is the best they choose to do. Almost more sad than scary.

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#1016270 - 10/25/19 10:44 AM Re: Willapa Policy Reveiw [Re: Carcassman]
Rivrguy Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/03/09
Posts: 4394
Loc: Somewhere on the planet,I hope


Here is the latest from R-6 on the Willapa Hatcheries. One thing everyone should remember is that this year is the last one with adults off the 3.5 million release. Next year it is only the 350k release.

To the question on 2018 egg transfers from Forks Cr, the escapement shows 6 million eggtake and change but no transfers are shown. No idea how that was done but I imagine they went South to Nemah or Naselle but it is odd that the reports do not show it as I always thought fed/tribe/state required approval/reporting.


Naselle Hatchery:
There is a new Chinook program release goal for the Naselle Hatchery starting this year of 5,000,000. This additional production is directed at increasing prey availability for Southern Resident Killer Whales. To-date, we have spawned 687 female Chinook. Currently, we have an estimated 2,061,000 Chinook eggs on hand in the facility.

Nemah Hatchery:
The Chinook program release goal for the Nemah Hatchery is 3,300,000. To-date, we have spawned 383 female Chinook. Currently, we have an estimated 1,149,000 Chinook eggs on hand in the facility.

Forks Creek Hatchery:
There is a new Chinook program release goal for Forks Creek Hatchery starting this year of 400,000. This additional production is directed at increasing prey availability for Southern Resident Killer Whales. To-date, we have spawned 708 female Chinook. This is enough females to make the program release goal. Currently, we have an estimated 2,124,000 Chinook eggs on hand in the facility.


Edited by Rivrguy (10/25/19 02:53 PM)
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#1016278 - 10/25/19 11:34 AM Re: Willapa Policy Reveiw [Re: Rivrguy]
Carcassman Online   content
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7413
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
If, off a 3.5M release they are not able to hit goal, how are they going to do it coming off of 350K.

Logic says they would have to close down a whole lot of fisheries to be successful. And, since those Chinook have already been hammered in the Marine Mixed Stock juvenile fisheries it looks like the whales be even hungrier.

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#1016321 - 10/27/19 08:15 PM Re: Willapa Policy Reveiw [Re: Rivrguy]
Geoduck Offline
Returning Adult

Registered: 08/10/02
Posts: 437
Technically Dave is right. There are a few returning 5 year olds from the 3.5 M release from forks creek 5 years ago, but 5 year olds comprise less than 1% of the run on WB streams, so not significant contributor.

Next year will be like this year minus the 30# fish (although its been a decade since I've seen one of those on WB).

They'll rarely make egg take on the naselle with the new goal, Forks creek is nearly making the goal with 10x less adults.

Note that the Forks creek hatchery appears to be way more efficient than Naselle.

Not a very good plan from a hatchery operations standpoint either.
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#1016324 - 10/28/19 04:03 AM Re: Willapa Policy Reveiw [Re: Rivrguy]
Rivrguy Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/03/09
Posts: 4394
Loc: Somewhere on the planet,I hope

Almost got me with the 1%, I had to look at the run forecast model to be sure. The numbers have changed recently as % 3 yr old went up at the expense of the 5 yr old. So just grabbing two years at random this. 2012 the breakout was 3 yr old 17.5% / 4 yr old 34% / 5 yr old 47.2%. 2017 the breakout was 3 yr old 35% / 4 yr old 49.6 / 5 yr old 20.7 %. The 10 yr average is 3 yr 24.5% / 4 yr 53 % / 5 yr 20.9 %. The 6 yr age group is still present but at a fraction of % and 7 yr gone.

The other thing is that the Southern hatcheries get about 30% less returning adults per million zero age smolt release or 70 cents on the dollar invested. In other words the 3.5 million Forks release will produce nearly as much as a 5 million at Naselle.
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#1016325 - 10/28/19 06:55 AM Re: Willapa Policy Reveiw [Re: Rivrguy]
Carcassman Online   content
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7413
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
That's Real Math that you're using there, Big Guy. In WDFW Math, it is obvious that Naselle is much more cost effective and productive of something much more important than either fish to the catch/escapement or money. Don't know what that is, but it must be more important. Right????

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#1016326 - 10/28/19 06:59 AM Re: Willapa Policy Reveiw [Re: Rivrguy]
Carcassman Online   content
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7413
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
This reminds me a bit of an internal discussion way back in the 80s when WDF was trying to culture and restore Dungeness Springs. The collected fish were reared to yearlings and released because everywhere else that WDF did Springs (mostly Columbia) the best returns came from Yearlings. Scale sample from adult Dungeness Springs showed zero, zip, nada, none, no adults that had been age-1 smolts. WDF's response was that we would continue to do age-1 as it worked everywhere else. There are more than a few times when actual, real data gets overlooked because it must be wrong.

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#1016331 - 10/28/19 09:46 AM Re: Willapa Policy Reveiw [Re: Rivrguy]
Salmo g. Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/08/99
Posts: 13521
To quote my friend eyeFISH, GDITMMM!

So WDFW adopts a WB policy deciding to increase hatchery Chinook production - along with natural Chinook production (never mind if that doesn't make sense) - at the less efficient and effective Naselle hatchery while decreasing hatchery Chinook production by 90% at the more efficient and cost effective Forks Creek hatchery. And all the while Director Susewind claims the Department is in a budget crisis! Sheesh! As I have suspected for a while now, WDFW has a priorities crisis, not so much a budget crisis. We need to make sure our Legislators are aware of this crap as the Department presents its $26 million supplemental budget request to the 2020 Legislative session. (It already went to the Governor's office last month.)

WDFW wants more of our money so it can continue the status quo of pissing it away on misfeasance or is it malfeasance status quo spending on programs that deliver less to WA sportfishers and taxpayers who fund the whole shebang. (Sorry for the slight thread drift, but) I've been pissed at Susewind since late May when he wrote that he will have to terminate the recently re-opened Skagit steelhead season because of a lack of funding for monitoring that is required by NMFS. The Department stopped stocking hatchery steelhead six years ago; where is all that money? Then a week later Susewind announced he was creating two new top tier management positions in the Department that would more than cover the cost of Skagit monitoring. And here the Department has enough money to operate hatchery programs that deliver fewer salmon overall, and fewer salmon to sport fishers who fund the GD Departement, but he can't monitor a Skagit steelhead season? And to think I heard that management skill is the asset Susewind brings to the agency as Director. Forgive me for not seeing that.

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#1016344 - 10/28/19 02:10 PM Re: Willapa Policy Reveiw [Re: Rivrguy]
Carcassman Online   content
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7413
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
Maybe WDFW should change their hats and logos to Red MAGA. Or, in their case MWDFWGA.

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#1016495 - 11/02/19 05:56 AM Re: Willapa Policy Reveiw [Re: Carcassman]
Rivrguy Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/03/09
Posts: 4394
Loc: Somewhere on the planet,I hope

Here is the latest in the saga for Willapa. I must admit that this Willapa Policy Review is just about as strange process as I have seen. One thing about it one could put more than a few miles on the car chasing this one around.

The thing I do not understand is how they plan to harvest the returning adults in the South Bay. Nemah is not much of a concern as it is not governed by the wild returns but Naselle is a restraining stream managed for wild Chinook. As of Oct 31 the Naselle Hatchery had collected 194 wild adults and passed upstream 91 with the rest going into the eggtake at the hatchery. Looking to the last 4 years a high of over 4k and 2017 being 1100 and change I sure hope that a bunch got past the wier. No matter I cannot see how harvesters access the hatchery returns without wiping out the wild componate.

WDFW NEWS RELEASE

Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife
600 Capitol Way North, Olympia, WA 98501-1091
http://wdfw.wa.gov/

November 1, 2019
Contact: Chad Herring, 360-249-4628, ext. 299

Public meeting scheduled to discuss 2020 Willapa Bay Chinook release strategy

OLYMPIA &#150; The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) is seeking public input on potential release strategies from Willapa Bay hatchery facilities next year, as egg collection at those facilities falls below expectations.

The meeting is scheduled to take place from 6 to 8 p.m. on Wednesday, Nov. 13, at the Raymond Elks Lodge, located at 326 3rd St., Raymond, 98577.

WDFW staff will brief the public on Chinook salmon egg take so far this year at Willapa Bay-area hatchery facilities; these include the Forks Creek, Nemah, and Naselle facilities. Earlier this year WDFW increased the goal for the total release of Chinook smolts from 6.15 million to nearly 8.7 million across these facilities. At this point in the season indications are that this new goal will not be met.
"We want to work with the public to determine the best possible release strategy for the Willapa Bay area moving forward," said Chad Herring, WDFW fish policy lead for the south coast.

This meeting will take place separately from additional public meetings addressing the Willapa Bay salmon management policy, which is currently undergoing a comprehensive review. The next meeting to discuss that policy is scheduled from 6 to 8 p.m. on Nov. 21 at the Raymond Elks Lodge.

WDFW is the state agency tasked with preserving, protecting and perpetuating fish, wildlife and ecosystems, while providing sustainable fishing, hunting and other outdoor recreation opportunities.
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#1016497 - 11/02/19 06:46 AM Re: Willapa Policy Reveiw [Re: Rivrguy]
Carcassman Online   content
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 7413
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
After wiping out the wild component, there is no need to consider it.

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#1016504 - 11/02/19 10:07 AM Re: Willapa Policy Reveiw [Re: Rivrguy]
Salmo g. Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/08/99
Posts: 13521
Except that WDFW created the wild component. After more than a half century of managing Willapa Bay as a hatchery "wipe out" style fishery without regard to natural origin stocks, any lingering bit of the admittedly small natural Chinook population was long ago extirpated. I thought WDFW decided to manage for a wild Chinook population segment to ward off any potential review and listing of Willapa Chinook under the ESA. WB is a classic case study of FUBAR.

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#1016508 - 11/02/19 10:24 AM Re: Willapa Policy Reveiw [Re: Salmo g.]
Rivrguy Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/03/09
Posts: 4394
Loc: Somewhere on the planet,I hope

The policy was to comply with HSRG requirements and what SG said as far as I know. Utilizing HSRG as the requirement WDFW decided not to limit things to native stocks, or composite stocks but rather any fish spawning naturally. In the case of Willapa streams the wild ( unclipped ) spawning naturally fish were totally stays from the hatcheries that created and supported the gravel. Nothing natural about them and one can make the case that they are trying to make a true wild fish were one does not exist. They did the same thing on the Humptulips Coho and I am sure other places.
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#1016510 - 11/02/19 10:26 AM Re: Willapa Policy Reveiw [Re: Rivrguy]
Salmo g. Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/08/99
Posts: 13521
Ah yes, HRSG, how could I forget that? Thanks.

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#1016985 - 11/13/19 11:59 AM Re: Willapa Policy Reveiw [Re: Salmo g.]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 12766
Originally Posted By: Salmo g.
Except that WDFW created the wild component. After more than a half century of managing Willapa Bay as a hatchery "wipe out" style fishery without regard to natural origin stocks, any lingering bit of the admittedly small natural Chinook population was long ago extirpated. I thought WDFW decided to manage for a wild Chinook population segment to ward off any potential review and listing of Willapa Chinook under the ESA. WB is a classic case study of FUBAR.


Sounds eerily similar to the conundrum with ESA-listed LCR tules

Without the constant infusion of hatchery-origin spawners on the gravel, the wild production would simply fizzle out. Hatchery origin-spawners are the parental source for the overwhelming majority of wild tules. Since the gravel is incapable of producing adult recruitment to even replacement levels, the continued existence of wild tules is almost entirely dependent on the presence of hatchery strays.
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"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#1017002 - 11/13/19 05:39 PM Re: Willapa Policy Reveiw [Re: Rivrguy]
Salmo g. Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/08/99
Posts: 13521
That's true eyeFISH. Both the LCR and WB are efforts to create or restore or recover (choose a term) naturally self sustaining fall Chinook in habitats that are no longer capable of producing them. I can understand the LCR because of the ESA impetus that doesn't include a provision for acknowledging that reality short of the God Squad. In WB I'm reminded that it's due to the intention of implementing the HSRG guidelines. However, I have to ask that if the HSRG understood that WB wasn't historically Chinook habitat in any meaningful measure, would they still recommend trying to create a naturally self-sustaining wild Chinook population in habitat that wasn't suitable in any great quantity historically, and is severely degraded from that capacity and productivity today and for the foreseeable future. For as long as the WR watershed is used for agriculture and tree farm forestry, a primary Chinook population that sustains itself just ain't gonna' happen.

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