Any reports? I was looking at last weeks escapement reports and saw there was 1 that returned to Reiter. Looks like there are a few in DW Wasington. I went to Oreegon last month first time in 2 years. Water low got some rain but little action. Didn't see many and when I did an old buddy showed up hooked and lost it. Caught one next morning. Got hot and saw a few but they didn't hold and moved up out of the tailout under the whitewater. I went up to the next hole hooked one saw another. Landed and tagged first Caught the second next cast. Went springer fishing below the deadline. There have been some caught but didn't see anything else caught except a pic of a native cnr. Caught one morning of day I left. Talked to another guy I know and he started fishing in JMay and only had caught 2 springers.

Been south a bit, and while I did not do great, I did see fish being caught every time I went. I just was not able to get to the right slots first and was very limited in time. The one day I had a little more time I did hook and break one off. Looking at the cowlitz numbers, the return there seems to be higher than normal. I have a feeling it will be a fairly good year overall.

Fished the Cowlitz yesterday, and partner and I got skunked. Too hot and bright maybe.

While the counts are better than the last couple years, they are only slightly more than one-tenth of what they used to be in July. So I've adjusted my expectations downward.

But we're recovering the wild Cowlitz steelhead Salmo.......

I wish the WDFW would abandon winter steelhead plants and pump up the summers. I have got a couple out of the Cowlitz the last couple weeks. Before the water dropped it was a boater boat launch show, fish stacked in front of that, what I call, that stupid new hatchery outlet. Why did they ever change that? Blue creek bar/wall was the show. Liked that better. After the latest drop to summer levels some fish to be found/slowed down downriver. Seems plants are the same, 660,000 smolt plant returning, but survival sucks? Is it outward smolt survival the issue? Did they used to plant more? I remember for acouple years it was a 6 fish limit, so many returned. It used to be loaded!
Still trying but so dissapointed. Retired buddy pest inspector hitting it frequently with minimal success. Do you have to plant a million to get a return? Surely not a return on the investment.

There are wild Cowlitz steelhead, but their smolt to adult return rate (SAR) is very low, same as the hatchery component. There's no shortage of hatchery smolts being stocked, somewhere around 600,000 summer runs and a similar, or more, number of winter runs. Used to be during peak July returns would experience around 2,000 summers to the barrier dam separator; this month has been 200 to 300+, and that's an increase from the last few years. Predation on juveniles and adults is up, ocean survival rates are way down. And fishing ain't what it used to be. But I ain't gonna' take up golf.

One thing about steelhead, at least winters, is that I have had nobody ever able to show a good data set of S/R from smolting to first return to spawn that averaged 1. The caveat was that you had to sample 100% of the run for age because age varies over time at return. This held for Waddell Creek in the 30s and 40s and held on the streams I looked at into the 00s. You need repeat spawners, almost period.

Looking at smolt age versus R/S as smolts got younger R/S increased. It looked like if the mean smolt age was about 1.5 that R/S=1. This may explain why, in general, the hatchery runs worked as they were age-1.

You can get younger wild smolts by significantly increasing salmon escapements but that's a non-starter.

It also means that programs to produce age-2 and older hatchery smolts is a non-starter.

CM-
Historically hatchery programs worked because of the protected environments produced significantly higher smolts per females, perhaps as much as 20 times smolts per female than most wild populations.

There are many variables control steelhead characteristics so there a plenty of exceptions to your blanket statements. For example the Skagit despite having 10 times as many salmon spawning per mile of anadromous habitat as north OP streams have older smolts. In this case a significant factor is the later spawn timing of the Skagit fish.

With reasonable marine survival (smolt to adult) like that seen in the 1980s basin like the Snohomish say increasing run sizes even though harvest rates exceeded the repeat spawning rate. Of course if a population is at or near carrying capacity for the current conditions for fish like steelhead R/S will always average around 1.

Curt

Skagit may have 10X what is seen on the OP and they may also spawn later but 10X the OP is still way below the ecosystem needs. You'd be looking at probably 1 kg per square metre of stream at slf (the currency for MDN).

I think the upshot here is that with marine survival rates so low, less than 1% for some steelhead populations, it's nigh on impossible to get one or more recruits per spawner, even with repeat spawners. The future of PNW steelhead survival, let alone recovery, depends on improved marine survival rates.

Tacoma site says they got 327 last week and have recycled 965 so far. Pretty good return graphs with last year and ten-year averages:
https://www.mytpu.org/wp-content/uploads/7-14-2023-Weekly-Graphs.pdf

Just realize that the 10-year average is down significantly because of the poor returns in recent years. Don't be blinded by the shifting baseline.

Well, 900 - 1000 summers now in the pen, vs. 200 -300+ as stated from just a few daze ago, is a fairly large increase...

Better news for those still trying to angle for a hit or two down there.

Shifting baselines are the salvation of WDFW. This year doesn't look too bad when we look at the last 5 or 10 so things must be fine. I remember some managers exulting that since this year's run was bigger than last year's it shows we have turned the corner. No mention that it was smaller than brood year.

I don’t really think any of these guys here, that are talking fishing the Cow actually think “ things must be fine “, maybe just better than they were hoping for...