While i'm not a biologist, I have an extensive knowledge of our fisheries and folow them closer than anyone can imagine.

We are seeing some very poor returns, WHY?

The river continues to kick out great plants of hatchery fish. Our coastal systems are putting out massive numbers of wild chinook smolts. Some years like 2001,2,3,4,5 we have great fall and spring returns. Yet the last two years we are not getting may fish back. We have met escapement goals in our Oregon Coastal basins. Last year we met escapement goals by a thin margin.

In 2003,4,5 we had terrible warm ocean conditions.


THERE IS A HUGE KEY TO GETTING THESE FISH BACK.......................

SALMON SMOLTS ARE MOST VULNERABLE WHEN THEY ENTER THE OCEAN AS A SMOLT. CHINOOK ENTER THE OCEAN AS 6-8" FISH. IF THE OCEAN CONDITIONS ARE NOT GOOD, THEY BECOME FOOD THEMSELVES. THIS IS WHAT OCCURED IN 2003,4,&5.

IF THESE FISH CAN GET PAST THE FIRST YEAR, THEY GROW TO A MUCH LARGER FISH THAT CAN FEND FOR ITSELF. THE POOR OCEAN CONDITIONS ARE DIERTLY RELATED TO A 4 YEAR CYCLE FISH.

FOUR YEARS AGO OUR SMOLT WENT TO THE OCEAN AND HIT BATH WATER FULL OF WARM WATER VISIOUS FEEDERS LIKE. THESE PREDATORS CONSUMED OUR SMOLT AND THE PLANKTON AND OTHER SMALL FOOD OUR SMOLT DEPEND ON.

Jsut my opinion of why we are in a slump now.

Wait a minute...I thought all of our fish were being netted up in Alaska?

132,000 was my guess to the run size for the Big C this year...

I call [censored] on what they considered jacks last year. A very high percentage of those "jacks" that crossed the dam were malnutritioned adults, an obvious sign of a piss poor ocean that's lacking the proper food amounts...

The fat lady hasn't sang yet but she's started on her lower notes with the dip in the drop of adults over the dam yesterday, peaking at 6700 and back down to 3000 already.

SW WA tribs have jack [censored] in them at this point......

Keith

I'm not a biologist either, but I did take plenty of bio classes and have been paying attention to what's been occurring the last few years off the coast.

The warm water conditions, as I understand, have been because our prevailing winds have been from the wrong direction. The has led to a lack of the usual upwellings of cold, nutrient filled water, off the coast. Birds were dying by the thousands- not because of predators, but because they starved. I would bet that our smolts starved, too.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/264581_deadbirds28.html

I would be interested to know what are the counts of the bird food sources, i.e., herring, candlefish, krill, etc. Were they wiped out, and if so, how? Studying the top of the food chain for starvation makes little sense to me. It seems like it would be something you notice and immediatedly beginning studying downward.

The lack of upwelling may be the root problem, but isn't there a history to refer to? Because if this something new, I'd be surprised. It may, however, have more significant impacts since we have a record of "managing" things to near extinction.

"Don't worry. We have it under control."

It all sounds like it makes sense to me, basically at this rate exteninction would not be to far off. Going from millions, to hundreds of thoudsands to tens of thousands in so few years is a reciepe for destruction and still no action by any of the fools who are suppossed to be watching out. One reason I am thinking FLORIDA !!! because the sportsman and the fish Matter There.

My [censored] .02 cents worth.

Peace
Fly

Looks like the bio's have met and upgraded the run size in the following meeting letter...... Is it any sort of suprise???????

I still think 200,000 is a far cry from what will happen.

Read here:
Lagging counts at Bonneville Dam's fish ladders have prompted fishery officials to scale back estimates of how many upriver spring chinook salmon will return to the mouth of the Columbia River this year.

The Technical Advisory Committee met Tuesday to review available data and concluded that the upriver run is unlikely to total 269,300 adult fish as was forecast in preseason. The run will likely number fewer than 200,000, the federal, state and tribal biologists concluded.

A run of 200,000 would still be the largest since 2004 when 221,000 adults returned to the mouth of the river and would still be the fifth largest on a record dating back to 1980. The four larger runs occurred in 2001-2004.

The lower Columbia mainstem sport fishery was closed as of April 21 to await news on the progress of the upriver run. The commercial fleet has had three mainstem outings this year, the last on April 15. Both fisheries did well. State officials say fishers hauled in about 27,000 chinook in all, with 6,000 of those going to gill-netters.

The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife's Robin Ehlke estimates that non-tribal mainstem fishers, at a run size of 170,000 adult upriver chinook, would be at their "impact" limit with fish already in hand. The anglers and gill-netters are allowed a combined 2 percent impact on the upriver return, a management scheme designed to limit the take of wild fish within the run that are protected under the Endangered Species Act.

Tribal fishers have yet to tap their commercial allocation, although it is projected that through Saturday 7,500 salmon will have been caught for ceremonial and subsistence purposes in permitted gill-net fisheries and 1,000 netted or caught with hook and line from riverside platforms.

Under a fishery management agreement between states and tribes, treaty fishers are allowed a 9.1 percent harvest rate on upriver spring chinook. Based on a run of 200,000, that would be 18,200 fish.

The Columbia River Compact on Thurday a tribal commercial fishery that begins Monday in mainstem reservoirs above Bonneville and runs through Thursday. Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission fishery biologist Stuart Ellis said the anticipated chinook catch through Thursday is 5,000.

Also approved Thursday is the sale, until further notice, of salmon and steelhead caught from platforms and with hook and line. The tribes project that an additional 2,000 salmon will be caught from platforms between Monday and June 15.

Tribal members will be selling fish "over the bank" at a variety of sites up and down the river.

The 2008 Bonneville count through Wednesday was 40,365 upriver spring chinook, as compared to a 10-year average of 95,789 through April 30. This year's count is much higher than those of the past three years (30,692, 7,028 and 3,139 in 2007, 2006 and 2005, respectively), when passage was later timed than normal.

The past three years' total return to the mouth of the river ranged from 132,140 to 86,230. Those totals include fish harvested between the mouth and Bonneville while the dam counts do not.

According the 10-year average, 43 percent of the upriver run will have passed the first dam they encounter on their spawning journey by April 28. The recent three-year average shows only 20 percent passage by that date and that scenario seems likely this year.

"Fish passage could be delayed due to river conditions that are non-conducive to fish migrations," according to an April 29 TAC report. A cool spring has resulted in slow snowpack meltdown and lower flows and water temperatures than normal.

The report notes that the successful downriver fisheries are a sign that there is "an abundance of fish in the lower river system."

The report said TAC members do not believe Bonneville passage has reached its midway point yet. That normally happens on May 1. Last year it was reached on May 5 and in 2006 it was reached May 12.

The upriver spring chinook run is beginning to surge. Daily counts have slowly risen from 1,570 on April 25 to 6,645 Wednesday.

Ellis, also vice chair of TAC, said it would skyrocketing daily counts -- an average of 4,500 daily through June 15 -- to approach the preseason forecast. Through Wednesday only the one count had exceeded 4,000.

I wonder if their hearts are starting to beat a little harder yet?????

Bonneville Counts:
4/26 - 1514
4/27 - 3523
4/28 - 3643
4/29 - 3994
4/30 - 6645
5/1 - 2935
5/2 - 2027

Keith

Another interesting thing to consider....

As of May 2 last year, over 2,000 "jacks" had crossed, along with about 65,000 adults. This year there's been about 45,000 adults over the dam and only 500 "jacks." So if jacks are still the main forecasting component for the following year's run size.... It's not looking as good.

One cool thing, I grabbed this pic when I went to check numbers:

Yep we need to get a handle on those commercials, our steelhead, sea run cutthroats and lamprey stocks are crashing.
Most likely they are just bycatch from some factory ship.
85% of all Columbia River salmon die at the dams, so lets go after the predators and harvesters.
Upper basin irragators and hydro operators are now officially laughing their asses off.

I don't remember where I was reading an article about that same thing but everything I have looked at and watched since has indicated the same. I think that it may be the right time to start to target a different variety of fish for me. I am headed to the south next year if I can help it. All the wrong doing and mismanagement has me pulling at my hair. Especially when what effort that is made by the public to protect the living marine resources is stifled by the buearacratic B.S. in the capitol building. Maybe it is just because I am getting older and taking more notice, but things don't seem to be in a hurry to get better.

I live by the new bridge that goes over the Cowlitz river and theres 25 to 30 Comorants that hang by the bridge and looks to me they are feeding on Smolts there. I know the Smelt are gone so what else would they be feeding on? Pikeminnow smolts? when's the season for Commorants?

Season is open whenever you have an shot and noone is around. There is a late season for them also. It starts around 9:00 PM.

We ain't seen nothing yet. Just wait till the new Steelhead Management Plan kicks in. A Salmon Man. Plan is not far away. All signs for the future of sportsfishing in Washington look pretty grim to me. I am glad I have to have gotten back into Flyfishing for trout on the East side. It's been great!

As we all know the ocean certainly goes in it's cycles. Pumping millions of hatchery fish out there is no different than 200 years ago when the Columbia would pump 100's of millions of native smolt into Big Blue and yes the survival ratio's were higher with the native smolts.... But, we no longer have the 100's of millions of native smolt exiting the Columbia and there's a big problem there... I think we'd all be suprised at the # of native smolt leaving the Columbia every year.

Again, I can't wait until they (all hatcheries including tribal) clip all hatchery fish. We'll be in for a rude awakening of what's actually left........

Keith

I disagree with you Aunty. I don't think raising less hatchery fish is the answer. Having hatchery runs for sportsfishing actually reduces pressure on wiId fish. I don't think hatchery fish and wild fish "compete" for food. I have never seen wild fish that appear like they are starving. But they do use excess hatchery summeruns to supply food banks. And food banks are short on food this year. Yeah maybe we don't see the June Hogs anymore. It is a generalization that hatchery fish are bad because of the Skammania summeruns. Actually I've noticed that the hatchery summeruns I've caught the last few years seem to be getting bigger with 10 lbs the average. Even the winter broodstock seem to be getting bigger.

If you want to limit commercial ocean fishing for salmon, steelhead, and foodfish I'm all for it.

I think somebody overfished a lot of salmon in the ocean.

"Having hatchery runs for sportsfishing actually reduces pressure on wiId fish. I don't think hatchery fish and wild fish "compete" for food."

That is an incredibly naiive statement. What, exactly, do you think it is that hatchery fish eat out in the ocean? What, exactly, do you think hatchery juveniles in the rivers eat?

Sportfishing for hatchery fish, in most situations, is the ONLY reason there is ANY sportfishing pressure on wild fish at all...if there were no hatchery fish in a given area, we might not be fishing there at all and would be catching NO wild fish whatsoever.

Planting a zillion Chambers Creek hatchery drones is exactly the reason we have very little November thru January wild steelhead left...they were all harvested up right along with the hatchery fish.

Fish on...

Todd

[/quote]

Just because you've never seen a "starving" wild fish doesn't mean there isn't competition between hatchery and native steelhead. A fish that is strong enough, and able to feed itself is going to do just that. A fish that isn't, is going to die. THAT is why you never see "starving" native's OR hatchery fish. Your post contradicts itself btw...Later

Jake [/quote]

You fail to disprove my point Jake. Do you have evidence of native fish starving? This competetion for food between native vs hatchery fish is all theory. How do you not know that there are not other variables involved and how do you conduct a non-biased study? All of the studies I've seen or read about are all biased because the people providing the funding want to cut funding for hatcheries.

Why do you think my post is contradictory? The part about hatchery fish getting bigger was in response to Aunty saying that hatchery fish are inferior to wild fish. Why does it matter if they are genetically the same? Maybe some distorted dorsal fins is all.

So what about the rivers that don't have hatchery fish?? That have very small if any sort of native return... A person would think those native fish would bounce back towards historical #'s. Great examples on the Lower Columbia would be Abernathy Creek or Germany Creek... These 2 creeks have been off the maps and something that very few if any people have fished in years... Why don't those runs meet escapement? In the 40's and 50's these 2 creeks used to be spectacular fishing for native steelhead....

Keith

"This competetion for food between native vs hatchery fish is all theory."

Utter hogwash.

You can obviously use a computer to write here...use it to do five minutes worth of reasearch.

Fish on...

Todd