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#975216 - 03/20/17 08:10 AM The Numbers dont add up!
Sky-Guy Offline
The Tide is Changing

Registered: 08/31/00
Posts: 7014
Loc: Woodinmilf
A new story this morning @ https://tidalexchange.com/ On Lake Washington Coho. This is a unique fishery each year in that we can get a very close approximation to actual run size, and count the fish taken by the tribes below the locks, how many fish make it through the locks, tribal take above the locks, angler take in the lake, and those which make it to the hatchery. Last year was also unique because there were no marine fisheries on Coho.

Who is to blame when all the numbers simply don't add up? We think we know why....

Do any of you believe these magic acts are happening in other fisheries which are much harder to track?

Discuss!
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You know something bad is going to happen when you hear..."Hey, hold my beer and watch this"

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#975217 - 03/20/17 08:17 AM Re: The Numbers dont add up! [Re: Sky-Guy]
snit Offline
Repeat Spawner

Registered: 03/08/99
Posts: 1493
Loc: Wenatchee, WA
The mice will play when the cat is away....
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..."the clock looked at me just like the devil in disguise"...

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#975218 - 03/20/17 08:33 AM Re: The Numbers dont add up! [Re: snit]
Rivrguy Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 03/03/09
Posts: 2986
Loc: Somewhere on the planet,I hope
Quote:
Do any of you believe these magic acts are happening in other fisheries which are much harder to track?


Well not sure on PS as you folks up there need to yip about that but frankly this should not surprise anyone. Simple fact is from C&R rates to drop out on nets to sea lions they are not correct. Try this one on. Coastal Chinook by CWT take a 50% plus hit by BC & AK but NOAa says it is around 80% if ALL human activity moralities are taken into account. Another is Chehalis Chinook and the state charges 2% drop out which is flat out a fabrication. You can set and count fish in boat / fish nailed by critter without missing a bite on your burger for lunch. Small run it can be as high as a 25%, larger run lower % of run but larger number of fish killed.

So I guess this is a good subject but if you find out why the math is wrong. Not sure about PS but I can tell you for the coast pennipid losses are way larger than reported as it is in the net drop out rate.





Edited by Rivrguy (03/20/17 08:57 AM)
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#975222 - 03/20/17 10:09 AM Re: The Numbers dont add up! [Re: Sky-Guy]
Lucky Louie Offline
Three Time Spawner

Registered: 11/30/09
Posts: 1949
Commercially caught Puget Sound Coho in 2016 shows there was 72.1 metric tons(158,953 lbs) of Coho caught in North Puget Sound and 36.4 metric tons(80,248 lbs) Coho caught in South Puget Sound.

I know it is too early for numbers on 2016 sport caught Coho. Just curious though.
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“Luck is the residue of design.” John Milton



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#975223 - 03/20/17 10:42 AM Re: The Numbers dont add up! [Re: Sky-Guy]
WDFW X 1 = 0 Offline
Hi How Are Ya?

Registered: 01/27/15
Posts: 1874
I think there is a very real possibility most State Workers cannot add or subtract.

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#975225 - 03/20/17 11:22 AM Re: The Numbers dont add up! [Re: Sky-Guy]
eyeFISH Offline
Ornamental Rice Bowl

Registered: 11/24/03
Posts: 11923
Disturbing to say the least
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"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!

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#975231 - 03/20/17 12:07 PM Re: The Numbers dont add up! [Re: Sky-Guy]
Carcassman Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 11/21/07
Posts: 4042
Loc: Olema,California,Planet Earth
The first problem you have is the fish are not actually counted at the locks. Counts are made and then expanded for times not counted, lockages not seen, and so on.

Probably the only truly real number is commercial catch sold to a buyer. That gets counted one fish, two fish, red fish, blue fish.

Sport is expanded from CRC. Escapement is expanded from index counts. Dropout is an estimate, based on averages from studies elsewhere. Pinniped predation, likewise, is an expanded estimate.

It should surprise nobody that a collection of estimates does not add up to another estimate.

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#975249 - 03/20/17 08:25 PM Re: The Numbers dont add up! [Re: Rivrguy]
Lucky Louie Offline
Three Time Spawner

Registered: 11/30/09
Posts: 1949
Originally Posted By: Rivrguy
Not sure about PS but I can tell you for the coast pennipid losses are way larger than reported as it is in the net drop out rate.

In PS, if those critters see you stand up in the boat to fight a fish, it is like ringing the dinner bell and hollering come and get it.
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“Luck is the residue of design.” John Milton



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#975250 - 03/20/17 09:16 PM Re: The Numbers dont add up! [Re: Sky-Guy]
Evo Offline
Carcass

Registered: 03/29/14
Posts: 2419
i read something that said that 45% of the Columbia run is consumed by sea lions...


if thats the case, well thats a HUGE part of the problem...

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#975252 - 03/20/17 09:48 PM Re: The Numbers dont add up! [Re: Evo]
Piper Offline
River Nutrients

Registered: 08/13/03
Posts: 3139
Loc: hood canal
Originally Posted By: Evo
i read something that said that 45% of the Columbia run is consumed by sea lions...


if thats the case, well thats a HUGE part of the problem...


its a good thing Cheetos's aren't endangered...
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"Give a man a fish and he'll eat for a day, Teach a man to fish and he'll sit in a boat and drink beer all day" - GutZ


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#975255 - 03/20/17 10:59 PM Re: The Numbers dont add up! [Re: Sky-Guy]
OceanSun Offline
Repeat Spawner

Registered: 07/01/04
Posts: 1063
Loc: Echo Lake
If you read the article, it compares like counts/estimates to other years accounting for dropoff, etc. and the analysis was very conservative so as to not exaggerate the point.

Now that we start doing the math, they don't want to share any harvest information or allow WDFW to share any of their harvest information. Why can't we as a group of fishermen file suite for transparency - we are, after all, those they are supposed to be fishing "in common" with. There's no fishing SECRETLY in common!
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. . . and God said unto them, Be fruitful, and multiply, and have dominion over the fish of the sea . . .

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#975279 - 03/21/17 02:15 PM Re: The Numbers dont add up! [Re: Sky-Guy]
BW Offline
Spawner

Registered: 04/04/00
Posts: 698
Loc: LAKEWOOD,WA,USA
The freedom of information request was dated 10/16/2016. According to Ron Warren from WDFW at our January South Sound PSA meeting you will only get the data as of that date. All catch records had not been entered in the data base by then. Therefore this article isn't the whole story.
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#975280 - 03/21/17 02:29 PM Re: The Numbers dont add up! [Re: Sky-Guy]
Sky-Guy Offline
The Tide is Changing

Registered: 08/31/00
Posts: 7014
Loc: Woodinmilf
Incorrect. We verified with the department that all Tribal catch for 2016 had been entered into the database prior to our request being fulfilled.
_________________________
You know something bad is going to happen when you hear..."Hey, hold my beer and watch this"

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#975281 - 03/21/17 02:39 PM Re: The Numbers dont add up! [Re: Sky-Guy]
BW Offline
Spawner

Registered: 04/04/00
Posts: 698
Loc: LAKEWOOD,WA,USA
All I can tell you is what we were told. You got the data as of October 16,2016. If that is not the case it should be taken up with the WDFW. As I understand it Ron is number 2 there.
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Everyone's superman behind the keyboard

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#975283 - 03/21/17 03:08 PM Re: The Numbers dont add up! [Re: Sky-Guy]
Sky-Guy Offline
The Tide is Changing

Registered: 08/31/00
Posts: 7014
Loc: Woodinmilf
You may be referring to the first PDR where WDFW failed to explain that no data had been entered into the system yet, thats why it was empty.We had a phone call when this PDR was delivered. At that time, Ron indicated that all Tribal catch for 2016 had been entered into the system. This call took place in February.

I can assure you that the data we received was a full representation of what the tribes and state have in their DB for Washington Tribal Chinook and Coho harvest for 2016.

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You know something bad is going to happen when you hear..."Hey, hold my beer and watch this"

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