COWLITZ, KALAMA, LEWIS ADULT SPRING CHINOOK 2019 FORECASTS AND RETURNS, AND 2020 RUN FORECASTS


The first number was the 2019 forecast
The second number was the 2019 return to the tributary
The third number was the 2019 return to the Columbia
The fourth number is the 2020 forecast to the Columbia
The fifth number is the 2020 forecast to the tributary

The last two numbers are the most important. But none of them are good.

Cowlitz 1,300 1,600 1,600 1,440 1,400

Kalama 1,400 1,000 1,005 1,030 1,000

Lewis 1,500 1,000 1,046 1,340 1,300

Total 4,200 3,600 3,651 3,810 3,700

*Tributary forecasts and returns are to the tributary mouths; Columbia River return and forecast is to the Columbia River mouth.

➢ The 2020 spring Chinook forecast for the Cowlitz River is the second lowest since 1980.
➢ The 2020 spring Chinook forecast for the Kalama River is about half of the recent 10-year average runsize of 1,900.
➢ The 2020 spring Chinook forecast for Lewis River is about 75% of the recent 10-year average runsize of 1,700.
➢ Ocean conditions between 2015 and 2018 were among the worst observed during the last 20 years and have likely had a strong influence on the Spring Chinook cohorts that will return to these tributaries in 2020.

For more information on historical ocean conditions, refer to https://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divisions