skydriftin - I'll choose to ignore your wandering from the subject of this thread. Your survival percentage estimates are not disputed by me or by the agency you choose to discredit in spite of the vast number of experts in their employ.

To continue with the numbers theme...
If it is predicted that 6000 fish might return and the "surplus" is 100 fish and the margin of error is ±20% then... The predicted return is between 4800 and 7200 and the "surplus" becomes something from a deficit of 1100 fish less than the escapement to 1300 fish in excess.

Are you advocating fishing on stocks with predicted returns that might be below spawning goals by as much as 18%?

And... Should we direct greater than usual pressure towards these marginal numbers of fish?