CFM -
While I would in no way attempt to debate you on your extensive knowledge of the Cowlitz and its fisheries or its fish I do have a couple observations.
The run timing and spawning timing of the native Cowlitz steelhead you report were surprising similar to that of the Skagit fish. Could it be because of similar spring/summer hydrographs?
Because of this unusual late spawn timing it is certainly possible that there may be little interaction between the late spawning native stocks and the earlier hatchery stocks. A review of WDFW's 2003 hatchery escapement reports shows that the Cowlitz winter hatchery steelhead egg take (521,154 eggs) was completed by the end of Janaury. The egg take of the "late" Cowlitz winter steelhead began in early April and was complete about mid-may with 876,694 eggs taken.
With 60 days between the end of the hatchery spawning and the beginning of spawning of the "late" fish it would seem to my simple mind that some uniquness of the "late" stock could have been maintained.
With nearly 1.4 million eggs taken it doesn't look like much of a reduction in the total hatchery production of winter steelhead.
It is also interesting to note that on a board that has many members who champion "wild steelhead" that there would be such support to maintain hatchery production at all costs and little support to enhancing the wild production of steelhead.
Tight lines
Smalma