What’s up with the numbers in JJ’s post of the response he received from Phil Anderson at WDFW? The expected run size for 2004/2005 is 13,148 steelhead. The state / tribal estimated escapement for 2005 is 10,909. Yet the expected non-treaty harvest is 6,757, and the expected treaty harvest is 3,963, for a combined harvest of 10,720. With a run size forecast at 13,148, minus a harvest of 10,720, leaves an escapement of 2,428. It looks to me like the state / tribal estimated escapement is in for a very rough season.

Sound fishery management doesn’t require absolutely precise run forecasts or even precise escapement estimates. However, it does require better arithmetic than the above scenario presents.

Sincerely,

Salmo g.