Without sounding like a skeptic of your numbers theories and hypothesis, where do all the numbers for the analysis come from? More specifically in regards to the amount of return per spawning fish. All the numbers and what not are a mind boggling brain teaser for a simpleton such as myself. I only ask because I am totally unaware of the source for the information that is provided to form the theory. Being an optimist about the salmon and their recovery has made me want to be skeptical of the grim story your telling.

I may have missed this somewhere in the middle of trying to sort out what you were saying and break it down to my level of understanding. But is there any sort of compensation for the fact that after the first generation of returns come back that the next one is actually a native stock. Thus bringing the number of return per spawn fish up slightly to the .8 from the .68. This may be a mute point since all the numbers are less than 1 which is bad, I am just curious.

Being cautiously optimistic about the whole thing I think that given the oppurtunity to be left alone and not harvested for a while that these, and any other run of fish, could and would make recovery. These fish have a survival tool that has helped them go on as long as they have, and I dont think that they have lost it in the midst of all the hatchery spawning. It may take a little bit but I think they can do it. That is unless their number is just up and we are doing all this in vain. I certainly hope not.