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Originally Posted By: eyeFISH



3.1 STATUS DETERMINATION CRITERIA

Any fishery management plan . . . shall . . . specify objective and measurable criteria for identifying when the fishery . . . is overfished . . . and, . . . contain conservation and management measures to prevent overfishing or end overfishing and rebuild the fishery
Magnuson-Stevens Act, '§303(a)(10)

Overfishing (to overfish) occurs whenever a stock or stock complex is subjected to a level of fishing mortality or annual total catch that jeopardizes the capacity of a stock or stock complex to produce MSY on a continuing basis
NS1Gs (600.310 (e)(2)(i)(B))

Overfished. A stock or stock complex is considered ‘‘overfished’’ when its biomass has declined below a level that jeopardizes the capacity of the stock or stock complex to produce MSY on a continuing basis.” NS1Gs (600.310 (e)(2)(i)(E))

Approaching an overfished condition. A stock or stock complex is approaching an overfished condition when it is projected that there is more than a 50 percent chance that the biomass of the stock or stock complex will decline below the MSST within two years.
NS1Gs (600.310(e)(2)(i)(G)



Originally Posted By: eyeFISH
A stock will be considered overfished if the 3-year geometric mean of annual spawning escapements falls below the MSST, where MSST is generally defined as 0.5*SMSY or 0.75*SMSY, although there are some exceptions (Table 3-1). Overfished determinations will be made annually using the three most recently available postseason estimates of spawning escapement.



PFMC should be looking VERY carefully at Willapa Bay right now, as that chinook stock is CLEARLY in that "APPROACHING AN OVERFISHED CONDITION" status as I type.

Last year's natural origin escapement of 1581 is BELOW the MSST of 1697. There is significant risk that the 2017 run is even smaller. If the 2017 escapement does not at least exceed 1513 chinook, the 3-yr geometric mean for 2015-2017 WILL fall short of the MSST threshold.

In other words, the stock has declined to a point that we are within 68 fish of triggering an OVERFISHED status.

SAD... friggin' sad.
_________________________
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)

"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)


The Keen Eye MD
Long Live the Kings!