During his campaign, Biden promised to end fracking and oil drilling. Between December of 2019 and the major invasion in February 2022 oil exports were mainly falling, with drops of up to 25%. This was the first drop since around 2015, with exports ramping upward from 2013. After the invasion, imports started to increase almost immediately. With the drops and the promises of less exports, Putin thought he could hold Europe at hostage. He was wrong.