JJ - The Quillayute Run Size has declined for the last four years (the escapement for five) but the decline has been from an exceptional peak in abundance. What goes up goes back down.

it's notable that last years returns were near precisely average for the last 25 years and the average includes those exceptional returns.

The average run size for those last four declining years was about 3000 fish above average and double the escapement goal.

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Bob,

Thanks for posting those charts. I highly appreciate someone putting up actual facts rather than simply "claiming" that the runs are declining somewhere.

I do have a copy of the Skagit Chart you posted but mine is older, "doyle 12-7-01 Rev C". I copied it from an interesting study that I found online a while back. I'm pretty sure it was on a TU site that has been removed and that the link to it was obtained here.

It does seem that the study is no longer publicly online, has been updated and that you and JJ and some others have electronic copies. I was very impressed with the data and analysis in that study and would love to have a copy.

If you or someone has a electronic copy that you are willing to share then please let me know and I will send you my ISP email address.

Thanks for your consideration. - Plunk

PS: Did anyone but me notice that the Skagit Run size has been increasing for three years straight? It has made or exceeded escapement for two years and that is a good sign but my more detailed charts reveal that the production rate was still below average for 2003 but it looks to be far above average this year.