Here is a Skagit Chart that needs some updating:



The "Predicted Run Size" here is simply the average 1.25 X the escapement from four years earlier. That line will soon be replaced with one tht considers the average production and return rates of the three main components, 2-salt, 3-salt and 2nd time spawners.

It seems apparent that without smolt out-migration numbers that drawing any conclusions about the systems "health" would be somewhat of a guess.

I do believe that much of the variation is cyclic in nature even when no repetitive pattern is discernable. For the returns to be average it would be unusual as is true with the weather.
_________________________
Why are "wild fish" made of meat?