Kevin,

It's unlikely that the wild steelhead broodstock programs are causing significantly reduced wild returns on any of the rivers. (Significant, as in measurable at the 95% confidence level - a statistical tool.) That is why you're seeing general swings in abundance in both the broodstocked rivers and the rivers with no hatchery stocking. However, it's important to recognize that no data supports the conclusion that broodstock programs increase wild run sizes. What data there are, scientific and anecdotal, are to the contrary. What the broodstock programs achieve is a greater abundance of harvestable fish. That becomes the justification for mining the wild broodstock at the expense of natural production. The broodstock programs can make fishing better, but they do not increase the wild steelhead population's productivity, as that is determined by the quantity and quality of habitat, the spawning escapment numbers, and the fitness of the wild spawners (which is higher if they are native and wild and lower if they are native and hatchery or non-native and hatchery or even non-native and wild.

I know it's probably a bit complicated, but I hope this helps.

Sg