Another problem with MSY management, has been shown up and down the coast with salmon, is that the calculations are based on what you see. That is, say, if you cap escapment at around 50K, MSY calculations will show that uou are managing well. If, for some reason, you screw up and get 100K on the grounds, recalculation will show that MSY just went up.

AK has seen this with pink and sockeye, WA with pink and chum. Look at the Puyallup. The MSY goal for pinks was 19K. Does it strike anybody as odd that the recent years' runs of 500K to a million are still producing surpluses.

Also, MSY management is always looking backwards. Say that salmon do have ocean cycles of high and low survival. Well, if you calculate MSY on the recent years and survival was low, you will overharvest. Or, if you are like WDFW you set a goal and then never evaluate it again (chum, for example) regardleess of what is actually going on. You get the good years, and then hammer them right back down.

When the Chinook escapment gopals were set back in the 70s, they were based on recent year averages. In the document where they set them they acknowledged that this level of sp[awners did not use the avaialble spawning habitat.