"If I had given you 40 points, would you have given me 2-1 on the bet you probably wouldn't have paid off anyway?"

No and that's about as strange a way to think about it as feeling you shouldn't give any points.

"Your assessment of Luck makes me want to take you up on any football bet. You can't judge QB talent at all so you're probably an easy mark."

Time will tell. The NFL happens to be the same way. A good O line makes a QB look like a superstar. A bad O line almost always cuts a career short. Pretty much every year we hear about a QB entering the draft who is the second coming and odds are he ends up a dud. I don't expect you to know these things as you live in SF.