Originally Posted By: treefarmer
Originally Posted By: Salmo g.
Treefarmer,

Allowing more fish than the escapement goal to spawn, on average, doesn't increase subsequent run returns.
Sg


That's the part where we have to play percentages. If "extra" fish spawn there is at least a chance that more will return. If not enough fish spawn there is no chance (given identical conditions) that more fish will return.
One would also have to believe the "biologist" has the "maximum # of fish" right. So the escapement # hasn't changed and we continue to not get the returns of wild fish needed to produce more fish.
I believe the escapement #'s need to be increased. But that doesn't happen.
How would escapement #'s change? (and I don't mean down). Has it been a point of discussion?
So something just ain't right.


IMO, harvest management has the likes of predicting weather: the predictions are always right but they fail to come to fruition.

Most stocks are "managed," but, as we all know, most harvested stocks are in decline.

What many managers cannot add into their models are environmental variations, both in the river and/or in the salt.

Additionally, there is no such thing as a known escapement despite what some people may think. It's an estimation that is generally generated from complete bullschit numbers. In reality it's not a constant number. One year the rearing capacity for juveniles could be 3 times high than the year before.