In-season management is the sportsman's answer to reconciling the difference between pre-season predictions versus how the actual run materializes in real time. But in-season mgt is applied very inconsistently if at all. Examples....

In the ocean, we take a scientific pre-season guess at abundance and arrive at a set harvest quota. Once the quota is set, the run-size becomes completely irrelevant. Bottom line, the harvest quota drives the season... we fish to the quota. In-season adjustments will be made to maximize harvest of that quota over a full season.... for the charter fleet, that means stretching things out thru Labor Day weekend. If the fish are more abundant than predicted, anglers encounter more fish than expected and burn thru the quota faster. Mgt action = throttle the fishery down to keep it from shutting down too early... less days per week, reduced bag. If the actual abundance is less than predicted, anglers encounter fewer fish than expected and burn thru the quota too slowly, threatening to leave fish unharvested before the charter season ends. Mgt action = throttle the fishery up.... more days, bigger bag, bonk wild fish. Completely bass-ackward! Not to mention that the ocean is harvesting on multiple return-years, not just this years crop of spawners.

In the Columbia, we manage to a fixed exploitation rate. In the case of spring chinook, we manage for 1% exploitation of the wild run. In season efforts are focused on continuous assessment of the real-time exploitation, and updating the run size as the season unfolds. The fishery gets shut down early if we max out the 1% rate. It gets extended days if we haven't hit the rate cap (impact). Bottom line we fish to a fixed rate, managing the schedule in-season to achieve the rate.

Then there is Region 6 management of Grays Harbor. We take a scientific guess at how many fish are coming. We decide how many are expendable based on surpluses above escapement goals, and set seasons to maximally harvest that surplus. Where there are few or zero surplus fish, we manage to an exploitation rate.... a 5% impact cap. And since there are mixed stocks, we manage for the weak stock. Seasons are crafted to maximize the available harvest of the weakest stock, even if it means forgoing maximal harvest of a stronger stock. Historically, chinook has been the limiting stock constraining the fishing schedule. Chum seem to come into play as a limiting stock on about a 10 year oscillating cycle. This is the brand of conservation that occurs in the region. And on paper it looks GREAT!

BUT......

While the fishery schedule is scientifically crafted, strict conservation goals are achieved on paper, and a final season is agreed to at NOF..... management promptly goes into cruise control. We simply fish to the pre-season schedule. The actual run-size becomes irrelevant.... and no attempt is made to monitor it in-season. The actual harvest also becomes irrelevant.... and ZERO attempt is made to monitor it in-season. And by simple deductive reasoning, it follows that the escapement objective also becomes irrelevant. We just find out after the fact. And if we don't make it.... oh well.

Yes, if the run comes in as predicted, run-timing follows historic patterns, and the fishing power of the fleets align with weather/water conditions, everything works out great. But that's a lot of ifs. And when they don't happen according to our expectations.... like the run doesn't materialize in size/run-timing according to plan, or lack of rain kegs the fish up for a major slayfest.... NOTHING is done in-season to adjust for it.

So in the end, (and I know I'm going to offend some of the readers.... esp those lurking from R6) the conservation objective in GH is achieved as much on blind luck as it is any "management" efforts. By not managing in-season, R6 is only doing half the job. And this is reflected in the historic post-season salmon escapements in the basin. We historically set seasons that habitually take more fish than what was planned at NOF. Conservation objectives tend to be met only when MORE fish show up than what we expected pre-season.

Like CarcassMan said... "An interesting conservation ethic. We estimate the number of fish, set a schedule, and fish it; regardless of catch."