While we all agree that the current estimates appear low, it's probably further complicated by run size and run timing, not only for the target stock, but also for the non-target (sometimes ESA-listed) stocks. If a run comes in "on schedule" and in something close to forecast numbers, a gillnet fishery can be very efficient and cause little dropout. Of course, if the run arrives early or late, or in smaller than forecast numbers, it requires more fishing time to capture a quota, which likely means more encounters with non-target stocks and, subsequently, higher dropout rates, in a year where the fish can ill afford them.

I don't think this is a reason not to factor dropout, at a standard rate, into quotas, but I imagine a commercial gillnetter might feel differently. Of course, if they went to more selective gear, it would reduce dropout and assure them maximum harvest for their time on the water, which seems like a win-win....