I understand the numbers are bogus. But lets take the tribe numbers as real. If the prediction was 1 in 10 as wild, and the return is 50-50, then we have a huge increase in wild fish or a huge decrease in hatchery fish. Seeing as the fishery was so successful, there does not seem to be a shortage of hatchery fish. Given this, the state should then threaten to up the predictions of wild fish be by the numbers reported by the tribe, and to expand the season dramatically. Seems reasonable that all expected fish above the expected return should be excess, or we should not be given the impact numbers. So, thousands of fish should be available for harvest right?
It all depends on how you want to spin the numbers. Either there is a shortage or excess, based off the tribal numbers. Taking the approach the state does, and believing the tribes' numbers, then there must be a huge shortage of hatchery fish returning right? So for conservation reasons we should insist the tribe drop the numbers of fish available for harvest and curtail their fishery, right?
You can not have it both ways, ..... Unless of course, you are the tribe.