That's a very good point Darth. We assume that hatchery and wild fish will survive in the wild at reasonably the same rate. If one stock declines so does the other. There are so many variables that could affct smolts from the same river that change overall survivals. Also for whatever reason, we also assume that they will all return at the same time. Maybe the wilds are early and the hatcheries late. Maybe more wilds stayed in the Sound while the hatcheries went to the ocean.

In an ideal world we would be monitoring the age and stock composition of the catch in real time and plugging it into timing/abundance models.

While management is not Brain Surgery or Rocket Science it is better when it occurs in a data rich environment.