Darth,


Option “C” is certainly a possibility but my guess would be that “A” or “B” would be more likely. One indication of option “C” being the case would be looking at hatchery escapements. The biggest hatchery influences for area 11 would be Nisqually, Minter, Puyallup, and Tumwater with confounding variables of straying into 11 from Soos Creek or George Adams.

Just a quick look at the escapement reports from 2016-2022 for Minter, Tumwater, and Voights Creek combined would show a range anywhere from a low of 14,652 adult chinook to as high as 45,756 with median numbers of between 22,000 and 27,000 adult hatchery chinook consistently. Nisqually escapement was unaccounted for since I didn’t have the data handy. Assuming plants have stayed consistent through this time period, it seems that survival for hatchery chinook hasn’t dropped much in recent years? I could be wrong on this but my initial guess would be that it hasn’t. I also don’t believe straying from hood canal hatcheries or northern hatcheries provide much influence, either.

It seems that numbers of fish returning to the hatcheries have remained consistent the last few years, and that wild chinook are more prevalent in the catch possibly suggesting they have rebounded slightly. That would be my theory at this point, or that marked numbers have decreased (but not on paper) but I would be open to other theories that present stronger evidence.


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