OK, you all called my bluff. That's great, it's always good to share what information we have, I say. Anyway, I'll have to get some more numbers tomorrow, but here are few more thoughts.

Escapement numbers are estimated independently of the fishery and after the fact. I can see why ondarvr thought it might be different, but escapement estimates are actually a pretty good, independent, way of assessing performance after the season. Accuracy? Well that's another question. There's some thought that high chum escapements are overestimated and low ones are underestimated, but, whatever, they are definitely based on post-season in river surveys and are at least ranked correctly. I'm pretty confident that 2007 was incredibly low (duh), while 2006 was very high.

In 2007, after the season, it was clear that different fishery management would have resulted in better escapement. An earlier than usual timed run, combined with a flow pattern that kept the fish in the bay longer than usual, resulted in an inseason update that was too high. Honestly, all seemed good to keep the fishery going, and when the later portion of the run didn't materialize there were no extra fish to pass up river. 2008 was similar, at least to the extent that the inseason update was too high. Not being involved in day-to-day management any more, I haven't looked at the detailed numbers yet to know if the earlier timing occurred also in 2008, although ondarvr's observations suggest that happened.

Again, it's more than just a fishing problem, though. The low fry index this year, coming off of the large 2006 and ok for an odd year 2005 escapements, suggest an inriver survival problem too. This is no excuse for misjudging the run inseason. We should be able to do that pretty well when we have a species that's mainly harvested in the terminal area. But it's an important piece of information, as is ondarvr's observation of a possible timing change that we shouldn't ignore.

As far as fishing and timing go -- it's definitely possible to shift the timing of a chum run through fishing, and definitely possible for that shift to revert back to normal when the fishing gets more even. I've seen both happen. Our management plan states that fishing pressure should be distributed as evenly as possible across the run timing, and we should be able to do that most of the time. When conditions change,though, the old way of doing business might not work. That's what happened in 2007.

I'll post some relevant numbers here when I can get my hands on them.