On a macro scale there is the simple question of WHY? Historically crab populations have fluctuated so is what we are experiencing (starting in MA 13 and south MA 12) a natural phenomenon?

A more immediate issue is one of equity. By virtue of the tribal crabbers not catching their half because there are fewer crab available than anticipated does that mean there will be less than half of the harvestable crab available for the State (meaning you and me) when our season opens? I will opine that is exactly what is occurring and will exacerbate the adverse impact of low numbers for State crabbers.

So, was there a failure to properly assess harvestable crab biomass?

Did the State do its own assessments in all MAs? Not to be overly conspiratorial but if the Tribes are doing assessments and find a low biomass it might be in their best interests to overstate the numbers thereby achieving an inappropriately high target half during negotiations with the State. Then when their crabbers aren't harvesting to that number the answer is to extend their fisheries - rather than enter into negotiations with the State to reduce the total allowable harvest. And, of course, that leaves the State with far less than half of the actual harvestable biomass.

I am not saying that this is happening but I am saying that the current system whereby tribal crabbers access the resource first is (1) unfair and (2) open to abuse especially if the agreed upon harvestable numbers are determined solely by the individual tribes.