Another thought I had post-meeting last night is that it's "odd" how WDFW seems to have assumed, based strictly on the fact there was no fishing, that all the fish we didn't catch lived to spawn. In other words, ZERO natural mortality. Unless they actually counted spawners and they miraculously matched forecasts, these data points were extrapolated, and they could have a significant margin of error.

Meanwhile, they had more precise numbers from the rivers that were open, and in every case except the Bogey, escapement exceeded preseason forecasts, despite what must have been heavy fishing pressure. I pointed out last night how that seems to indicate release mortality is grossly overestimated at the 10% figure they still use, despite having more recent and better studies that show it's below 5%. Losee took the opportunity to toot WDFW's horn, saying those numbers were probably more reflective of the rule changes (no fishing from boats, etc.) they put in place last year. Either way, it comes down to more proof sport fishing is not among the most significant factors in species decline.

Anyway, I think it's reasonable to suspect that escapement was better than forecast in most systems last year, and until we learn more about the methods WDFW used to calculate escapement (assuming it wasn't a direct copy and paste from the forecast column), I will be suspicious of their escapement data from the closed systems. We know they don't monitor closed fisheries, and that COULD make data collection challenging, if not impossible....

I think, overall, they are trying to do right by the fish. My only concern is that, with most runs missing escapement again, they're defaulting a little too quickly to the full closure button. I'm certain there's room for creativity, if I'm not entirely sure where yet.