Bob -
Thought you said just one more questions. But hey what the heck I'll bite again - I'm well known as a free riser, fortunately for me I'm not a trout.

The situation with the wild fish likely will not be as drastic as with the hatchery fish. It appears that poor conditions typcially hit the fish the hardest their first year at sea. The reason wild fish populations are more stable of course is the much more diverse age structure of the wild fish population. Typcially early timed Washington hatchery stock is about 85% or so 2-salt fish. Which means of course if that group fails the run fails. With the wild stocks we have maybe 15% repeat spawners, a few 4 salt or older first time returning adults with the remainder more or less split equally between 2 and 3-salt adults. The failure of the 2 salt group with the wild stocks will not have nearly as drastic impact on the total returns as with the hatchery fish.

Generally if there is good imforamtion on the spawning escapement and age structure of last year's run one can have a pretty good idea of what to expect from the old groups of fish. What would I do? I guess that would depend on good I thought my wild fish imformation was, and how the stock has been preforming in relation to its management goal. If I had poor information and especially if the recent escapements have been marginal in relationship to the goal some sort of action may be prudent. If I had good information and have consistently been achieve escapements well above goals then I would say there is some buffer and we could probably take the time (wait further into the run) to better assess the wild run strength.

A question for you.
If there is strong feeling that the hatchery run is a bust and the wild run may as well why don't you recommend closing the river to all fishing rather than CnR? That would appear to provide the best "safety net" for the wild fish.

Tight lines
Smalma