I think it's important to discern between a "reason" and a "justification", too...

Saying "if the run is healthy, I should be able to bonk one" is a justification, not a reason...a reason would be the "why" involved in the story...like "I like to eat them" or something.

Saying "if I don't bonk 'em, the Indians will!" is another justification, not a reason...

Fish on...

Todd