SF -
As you can imagine determining the allowable catch can be pretty complex and relies on the use of a fishery model. To simplify a bit after factoring in the forecasts of all the various stocks, the contribution of those stocks to various fisheries, etc. an estimate is made of what say the catch will be in MA 9. IN this case the fishery was modelled as a 4 week fishery during the summer. The model spits out the expected fleet catches; including sub-legal wild and hatchery and legal size hatchery and wild fish. For the released there is an assigned mortality (with a difference between the sub-legal and legal size fish). Further the allowable impacts calculations for those sub-legal wild fish there is a conversion to how many of the fish that died would have survived to become an adult. The model further parses out the all the various strata of catches into various stocks which goes into the total ESA impacts calculation for all fisheries.

The end result is that there is a estimates of total ESA impacts for each of those ESA listed Chinook stocks for the MA 9 summer fishery and as well as what the expected hatchery catch/harvest will be. The end result is the harvest quota has an associated ESA impact; which seems to be more understandable for the fishing public.

I should mention that the model used is based on historic code wire tag information which is dated. In addition the modelled catches are based on historic fleet effort and success. As we all know effort has increased which is way even though the fishery is modelled as 4 weeks the catch quota is often achieved in a shorter time period.

For several years there has been a promise of an updated model which may be ready for 2017.

Curt