I received an email from Mr. Losee regarding the GH & Willapa Preseason Forecast meeting in Montesano. At that meeting he allowed discussion on Steelhead issues in the Chehalis and Willapa. In the follow up email he provided the following input he had received prior to the meeting ( he identified mostly from guides ) so I thought I would post them up for folks to see.

Now before someone blows a gasket let me say this. I have no idea on why he could take such a proactive approach on Grays Harbor and walk out of the meeting knowing and not sharing that he was shutting down Steelhead fishing in the Willapa streams. I am clueless!

Idea: Leave the Chehalis open from Skookumchuck down to Galvin RD Bridge for the opportunity to catch Skookumchuck hatchery fish.

This proposal is to target late-timed, hatchery origin steelhead returning to Skookumchuck hatchery. However, impacts to wild steelhead will occur given that 33% of the total Chehalis wild escapement occurs upstream of this section. In addition, given the size of this section of river (~1.5 miles) crowding and higher than expected encounters are likely to occur. Additionally, counts of hatchery steelhead have declined during the past three weeks; from 363 hatchery steelhead on Feb. 5 to 76 hatchery steelhead on Feb. 19 consistent with previous years.



Idea: Open a portion of the Skookumchuck - from dam down a couple miles.

See response to previous question.



Idea: Open all or a portion of the Wynoochee (some say all of it, some say up to 7400 line, some say from the dam down).

This proposal is to target late-time, hatchery origin steelhead returning to Wynoochee River. However, impacts to wild steelhead will occur given that 17% of the total Chehalis natural escapement occurs in the Wynoochee River. Average catch record card harvest information from 2001 to 2017 in Wynoochee River shows a 66% drop in catch from February to March. The limited benefit of this proposal to encounter hatchery origin fish is outweighed by the high likelihood of high exploitation on natural origin fish.



Idea: Open a portion of the Satsop, restrict use of bait – open mainstem and section near the hatchery on the East fork. Keep middle and West fork closed.

The Satsop River represents important spawning habitat for wild steelhead representing greater than 25% of the spawning population in the Chehalis watershed.



Idea: Close Turnow Branch.

West fork closed Nov 30th annually.

Idea: Close Nawaukum.

West fork closed Nov 30th annually.

Idea: Close Wishkah

Closes last day of Feb annually.

Idea: Look at redd surveys to see where higher volume of spawners are, in order to assess high-risk areas

See Figures 1. Wild steelhead are distributed broadly throughout the basin with highest density spawning overlapping with areas of interest for anglers.



Idea: Look at regulations changes to lower exploitation rates (select gear, bait restrictions, single barbless hooks, one hatchery fish limit, mandatory retention, etc.)

Suggestions below represent viable options for rivers outside the Chehalis Basin considered for changes in 2020 to reduce exploitation associated with shift in effort from Chehalis. Within the Chehalis, opening rivers with changes to gear or harvest regulation will not result in meeting conservation objectives given high certainty of encounters with wild fish under all options described below. These options also require changes to modeling and assumptions to agreed- to pre-season plans and should be revisited prior to planning of seasons in the future. These assumptions include mortality rates associated with different gear types, encounter rates on hatchery vs. natural origin steelhead and behavior of anglers under variable regulations.



Idea: Open limited sections of rivers on limited days (i.e. Thursday, Friday and Saturdays only). If you do this make sure one of the days is a weekend day

This suggestion was considered given the ability to extend seasons and spread angler effort throughout the coast. WDFW also recognizes the benefit in limiting the disproportionate impact on the early end of the run by extending seasons throughout the run using daily closures. In contrast, modeled savings and associated effort shift from closed days to open days is extremely uncertain.



Idea: If these options can’t provide some level of opportunity within the Chehalis basin, consider closing other systems where increased pressure will result in us exceeding exploitation rates and not meeting escapement (i.e. the Humptulips and the Hoh). BUT, if considering closures to the Humptulips, Hoh or Clearwater due to increased pressure due to Chehalis closure – make sure there’s data on angler pressure to support it. Don’t rely on anecdotes but real numbers.

Options below were considered by estimating the associated savings (exploitation on wild steelhead) by reducing the length of seasons to coastal rivers (outside Chehalis) . For instance, a modeled closure of all Region 6 rivers on March 1 would lead to a reduction in pre-season modeled exploitation rate of 39 to 49% depending on river-specific schedules listed in pamphlet. Similarly, a March 15th closure is expected to result in a reduction in exploitation rate of 21 to 33% depending on the river. These results were based on known run-timing and exploitation rates throughout the season.



In addition, data on effort in 2020 following closure relative to recent years is limited however given the small margin or error between meeting pre-season plans and escapement goals vs. failing to meet goals (Figure 2), WDFW is comfortable with the assumption that some increased effort is likely to occur as a result of closures. This assumption is also supported through discussions with the public, theguide community and creel monitoring.



Other points/ questions on long-term management

The group would like to see tributary data. Figure 1, summary table available upon request.
The group would like to how we are considering changing our management approach in order to make sure moving forward we aren’t under escapement. This work has highlighted weaknesses in our current management approaches that should be discussed prior to 2021.
The group would like to know what the agency’s strategy is for improving our relationship with the co-managers so we have better in-season data. This year, weekly technical calls, exchanging data and discussing in-season tools with Quillayute and Hoh for in-season check-ins has been beneficial. This would be a strategy worth exploring for Chehalis and Quinault tribes. We welcome future discussion on this topic.
The group would like to see more funding to help with creel monitoring and spawner surveys in R6, especially focused on steelhead. While additional creel work would strengthen understanding of effort and encounter rates, it would likely not provide high resolution information on run-size to alter pre-season management approach in-season. This year on the Hoh River we are experimenting with using weekly redd counts to inform runsize predictions. However, the peak of steelhead spawning (when data is most informative) occurs after the majority of sport fisheries have already taken place. Alternatively, we could explore more conservative management plans pre-season to insure escapement goals are met or exceeded given forecast uncertainty.
The group would like to see us consider a different management approach than MSY so we have a stronger conservation buffer.
We currently do not manage for maximum sustainable yield (MSY) per se but rather try to maximize the number of adults (runsize) that return to fisheries through efforts to meet escapement goals. Unfortunately forecast accuracy, variable survival rates and variable bycatch while targeting hatchery origin fish has lead to poor performance in meeting escapement goal for Chehalis in recent years.

Additionally, an agreed upon conservation buffer for state and tribal fisheries is an option that may benefit steelhead and associated fisheries in long term.

In summary, we are supportive of a more conservative management approach given long term trends in runsize for majority of populations in Region 6 (Figure 3) combined with improved forecast methodologies.