That's what in-season updates are for. When we looked back at the performance of PS updates for about 20 species/stocks the updates were more accurate almost all the time. I can recall only one (South Sound coho) where the update did not get closer than the the forecast.

I know they argue that they "can't" do updates. Well, they manage the fisheries based on harvest rates, right? HR=C/RS. My weakness is that I learned my math in California and according to what I learned, RS=C/HR if the harvest rate calculation is true. Either both are true, in which case you have an update or both are false in which case management is based on a false assumption.

You choose.