Several of us have been comparing notes ( rumors ) on what the 2022 salmon seasons are going to be and we have no idea at this minute. I have seen ocean abundance for Coho at 1.5 million and higher, maybe much higher. This time 2021 the Columbian was reporting that it was 1.7 million for 2021. I will post up that article later. Keep in mind the coastal streams that have been struggling with wild Coho escapement are likely going to limit marine fisheries at different locations / times as in recent years but marine fisheries are likely to be far more liberal for Recs than terminal fisheries by a mile.

So what about Grays Harbor? We know that Region 6 manager Mike Scharpf shared with everyone that he thought the the Coho forecast would be "robust". That is good news now the bad comes right along with it. We will be limited by a provision in the Grays Harbor Policy that if we fail to make escapement 3 out of 5 years non treaty harvest is limited to an impact of 5% of the returning run. ( known as the Penalty Box ) To make matters worse the tide water tributary streams have been way below escapement with the upper basin streams over performing thus supporting the aggregate for the entire Chehalis.

Next we have the fact that our Chinook and Coho are present at the same time so Chinook can limit our Coho fisheries. With the massive Alaska and British Columbia marine fisheries there are seldom enough returning adults to support a Chinook fishery but what if ? With an Chinook escapement goal of 9753 I think we would need a Chehalis forecast for Chinook in the range 14000 giving tribal and non tribal 4247 harvestable resulting in 2123 harvestable Chinook for each of their fisheries. I am not holding my breath but one can hope.

Back to Coho, the hatchery abundance for the Chehalis should be up but how much is hard to say. Hatchery releases are normally governed by the ocean conditions and in 2021 Bingham / Satsop Springs had a combined return of 11955 normal timed Coho. So all things being equal if ocean abundance was 150% of last years return it would be near 18000 normal timed Coho and the bigger the increase in marine survival the bigger the Coho returns increase. The brood year for 2022 normal WILD Coho was just a bit under escapement so if we had a descant fresh water survival ( which I think we did ) then it will all be about just how much and increase the marine survival gives us. So as one can see a whole bunch of factors are in play. What is not in doubt is that we are in the Grays Harbor Policy 3/5 Penalty Box limited to 5% of the Coho run forecast.

So bottom line? No idea on Chinook and one can only hope. Coho seasons I think it will be similar to last year with hopefully and increase. 2021 harvestable NT share was W5904 / H10187 so lets say the run is doubled up our Coho impact number would still be 5% of the return be it 1000 or 100000. What it would do is provide a bit better maneuvering room to allow for more opportunity but as Mike Scharpf told us all in an e mail posted previously 2022 NOF will be interesting!