Loc: Somewhere on the planet,I hope
I think Doc got it pretty close but there are a couple of interesting things still out and about. Chum are still moving up the last few days in numbers to. I say that because I can see then finning around at high slack at the house. Another change, they are dark in tidewater now and that is different. I doubt it fills the low numbers but they look to be improving.
The real oddball is hatchery Coho. The run was forecast at about 16k after harvest to the hatchery rack. Wishkaw numbers are not up but the rest add up to 5516 ( 1k for Wishkah added to the number ). The 600k of late smolt release is in the numbers but it only goes to Dec 1 and lates under perform normal timed so I do not see that gap being filled. So let us say that the backside of the normal timed picks up some lates and the remaining normals do as the early part of the run. So for the sake of discussion lets say the number is 2.5k and that will give you 8k plus change at the rack. The results are a hatchery return of around 50% of forecast.
So now take Doc's view with harvest and hatchery factor in the lower hatchery return ( wild Coho were forecast around 41k and 25k hatchery ). You get a the good chance that wild Coho are doing under expectations but better than harvest alone says they are. The flip side is hatchery Coho way under performed resulting in a higher proportion of wild in all catches.
So my bet is around escapement for everything but late Coho with the plus or minus around 10%.
Edited by Rivrguy (11/06/1706:58 AM)
Dazed and confused.............the fog is closing in