Here are the changes and there are several. Hump W was 6207 and H 2467 Chehalis was 17781 W and 2390 H. Compare with new below and we will have to see but the Hump is going to be challenging to say the least. Remember Hump is not in 3/5 like the Chehalis so it is the W impact that governs everything.

From Chad:

Good afternoon everyone,

We have reached agreement on Grays Harbor fall Chinook forecasts for 2019. I have inserted a table below with the forecast numbers. Forecasts for all other salmon species (spring Chinook, coho, and chum) in Grays Harbor are unchanged from what was presented at the forecast meeting. I have also attached the preseason planning model runs that were presented at the advisory group meeting with the updated fall Chinook forecast numbers. There were two models that were presented, one was 2018 fisheries with 2019 forecasts and the other was 2019 forecasts with a rec season more closely resembling what has been offered in recent years. Staff are currently working on updating the information available on the WDFW website.

Just to provide some more clarity to Kirtís earlier response. The issue was in how historic catch data was assigned to origin (hatchery vs. wild). The model assigns origin based on current year runsize proportions when actual catch data is not yet available. The problem was the historic catch data was still referencing these proportions instead of the actual catch data by mark type reported from CRC and tribal sampling. Staff will be available to discuss this in more detail at our upcoming Grays Harbor fisheries public discussion meeting on March, 26th at 6pm at Montesano City Hall.


Predicted Return
Escapement Goal
Harvestable Number

Runsize
Chehalis



Hatchery (Mean rates)
2,226
341
1,885
Wild (Mean Ret/Spawner)
13,568
9,753
3,815

15,794


Humptulips



Hatchery (Mean rates)
5,435
650
4,785
Wild (Mean Ret/Spawner)
4,427
3,573
854

9,862


Thanks,
Chad Herring
South Coast Fishery Policy Lead
Montesano Regional Headquarters
48 Devonshire Rd
Montesano WA, 98563
Office#:(360)249-1299
Cell #:(360)470-3410
Chad.herring@dfw.wa.gov


Edited by Rivrguy (03/12/19 04:55 PM)
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Dazed and confused.............the fog is closing in