Well the NOF first meeting for GH & Willapa is done and how does it look? In a few words terrible in GH but not as bad in Willapa. I managed to lose the Willapa numbers but it is the natural Chinook that are hard down but not worse than other years. The big item rattling around here is the fact that the Commercials keep going over there % of runsize in harvest. It is a Section 7 thing which is the adjustment clause in the Willapa policy and can/will involve the Commission, maybe.

Now GH is different and is up in the air. So Chum we have agreement with the QIN and the numbers is 32,300 which puts 11k and change up for harvest. Coho is interesting or something as no preseason forecast yet. The state and QIN forecast are VERY different. 29k from one and 109k from the other. Now that is one hell of a gap and simply put we wait for the differences to be worked out. Remember we are limited to 5% impact if the forecast is below 110% of escapement.

Fall Chinook are going to be down, way down from the past couple of years. The one number we got was 8k which is below the 9753 escapement goal but I do not have the other number but 8k is the low one. Because of the 3/5 GHMP rule which is the limiter on harvest if you fail to make escapement three out of five years no matter what our impact will be 5% of the runsize period.

Spring Chinook are way down also at around half of escapement which will pretty much end conversation on that except to 5% again as with the Fall Chinook.

So first step done and Mike will send me the models he has so I can get them out next week. More to come.
Dazed and confused.............the fog is closing in