Back side of the storm was about what was forecast and basin streams went straight up on the graphs to record flows for date in time and now are falling just as fast. NOAA's sites a not working this morning but it takes two days for the Porter crest to reach Aberdeen. So in tidewater this morning we have mud big time and all tribs are falling but no idea on the bay conditions. Porter will be at average flows by the Oct 1st and Satsop Sept 29th. At this time by the opening inriver Oct 1st you all will be looking at the entire basin almost average flows still dropping.

With the movement posted up earlier we also had a massive surge the three days before the storm. So upstream someplace there are a lot of fish but how far up did they move? No idea but they are 4 to 6 weeks from spawning so time is not pushing them yet so they should stop someplace with falling flows.

Also this, WDFW is busy updating Willapa forecast and this was from Chad Herring: As has been discussed with the group before, the Department does not currently have the ability to update Chinook runsize in-season but does have a tool to evaluate the runsize of coho in-season. This in-season update model (ISU) has been employed in previous years and is based on catch per unit effort in commercial fisheries. The ISU begins to become statistically significant in statistical week 38 (Sept 13 – 19) and that significance improves as more data points are added through time. We are currently in stat week 39 (Sept 20 – 26). Utilizing the data collected to date the ISU model predicts a natural origin Coho runsize between 69,656 fish to 35,788 fish. This prediction is much higher than the preseason forecasted runsize of 16,074 natural origin Coho. Ah yeah WDFW they do love nets they do but indications are coast wide that the Coho runs are over performing when compared with the preseason forecast.

So in the bay & tidewater your going to be fishing on what is swimming by that day as it is doubtful any staging is going to happen in the lower reaches. Up river the fish gotta stop someplace and that is the challenge but with this much water they have to be way upstream, how far is the question.