Well as things wind down to a high water pause in the action I took a look at the numbers so far and a little strange to say the least. On the Chehalis side the hatchery rack reports ( all five Chehalis facilities Hump not included ) have 7463 so far. Combined NT & QIN harvest is 1678 Chin / 7160 Chum / 7388 Coho with this bit. The Chehalis tribe will add around 2000 Coho to harvest and a few Chinook & Chum.

So the forecast Coho rack return was 28895 & thus far 7463 which is not that hot to say the least. The harvest by NT & QIN was 7388 combined and the forecast was 11K and change which gives us a total of around 18K know handled fish. ( keep in mind the REC harvest still has to be counted ) The thing at this point is that the REC was modeled at around 5K harvest but that number is always questionable due to how things are reported. It does give one a peek at the landscape though. The Coho run failed at the hatcheries which in turn put a higher proportion of NOR ( wild ) in the catch. The Commercial harvest was well below expectation but that means the Commercial ( and REC ) had a much higher proportion of wild in the catch. As strange as it sounds that is good news as it will tilt the final spawner number to the fishes favor. The question is how much? No idea here.

Chinook look to be performing slightly above forecast in QIN / NT impacts but one must wait for redd counts as the REC C&R has one big hunk of impacts. Time will tell.

Edited by Rivrguy (11/13/17 10:40 AM)
Dazed and confused.............the fog is closing in