Way back when I looked at PS chum goals. In the 70s, they were based on the average of the highest three years in the data base. Because there was such a consistent difference between even and odd years separate goals were made of the two. Fast forward to the 90s. We had been using this goals for 20+ years and we were coming off some really high returns in the 80s/early 90s.

So, I applied the Ricker Curve to the whole data set for each stock. Interesting results.

As the runs got larger, the calculated MSY goal went higher. Then, as the returns diminished in the 90s, so did the calculated goal. Became apparent to me that the goal reflects the data; if you look at years with smaller returns it certainly won't tell you that you need twice as many fish.

It would not surprise me that if one looked at GH coho and emphasized the recent years of low returns that one would get a lower MSY goal. We are likely to see this sort of analysis out of AK with their Chinook....