Staff has provided the preseason forecast models for folks which should not be confused with the harvest forecast models which will be available in March as the season options are developed. If your not on my personal e mail list and want the models let me know and I will get them to you. The preseason models have a lot of information and frankly it can be confusing to say the least but a lot of run history is in them that allows one to look back in time. The one short coming is that they have is that escapement numbers only go to 2016 which is important when we are looking at a restricted season due to a low forecast.

So, the recent online forecast meeting, how did it go? The numbers for harvestable Chinook and Coho are low and we are in a bind with Coho numbers being low and missed escapement 3 out of 5 years which restricts NT harvest impacts to 5% of the run. Then we have the fact that the 2020 escapement numbers are not done yet which is confusing as few Coho spawn in February. This is important as if we made Coho escapement in 2020, we are not in the 3/5 penalty.

We are out of the 3/5 penalty for Chinook but frankly if we have a fishery on Chinook, we will blow escarpment in NY minute. Some folks want to be able to keep a clipped Chinook (hatchery) but these are the prodigy of the volunteer Broodstocking every year for over 20 years to rebuild and maintain the Satsop Chinook and not a true hatchery run. We blow that Satsop run apart (again) it will not only screw the fish over but have an extremely negative impact on fisheries from Fuller Hill downstream as these clipped adults are part of the natural spawning population in the Satsop. The local community volunteers have put in over half a million dollars in man hours trying to keep that from happening, again. To be frank that is their choice as they choose to give back to the resource while others simply want to take for their own purpose. I am in the give back group which puts me at odds with some folks. That said the fact the commercials can keep one as incidental rather than use the recovery box and release grates on some folks and rightly so but then the GH Policy does not allow for targeted commercial Chinook harvest which is good.

Then we have the fact that 2020 hatchery jack returns at Bingham were X6 & wild X 4 over the previous year which was about average. The ocean PDO was very favorable when compared to the previous 5 years which should indicate a good return. That appears to be the case in the Columbia so why the difference Grays Harbor and Willapa, I do not know but something is a bit weird about this. So, we wait to see what 2021 seasons will resemble.

On a personal note, I would like to say this. My e mail has been on fire with what can only be described as very personal attacks on Ron Warren and other staff, guys that is uncalled for. I have known Ron for over 30 years, and he is descent guy. Now why he makes some of the god-awful decisions he does is a mystery to me. Why rather than guide the agency harvest managers to be more open and franker he chooses to go for the bunker mentality is also a mystery. Take the Grays Harbor and Willapa Advisers and no notification or anything that they had been cancelled! We found out only from his comments at a Commission meeting. The list goes on and on, but this is business folks and WDFW has a system and culture that it operates with. You can disagree strongly with WDFW staff right down to being rude but get off the personal attacks guys it is unnecessary. It does not further your argument or position and leaves an impression of you being a bit (you choose the word).

All that said this, Ron your description of the Grays Harbor and Willapa Advisers at the Commission meeting is downright insulting, short sighted, dishonest and these are the kindest words I can think of to describe your actions. Your better than that guy and it saddens me to see you reach that low.

So, folks we wait to see what shakes out for 2021 salmon seasons as the process such as it is goes forward.