This whole situation of blocks of fish passing the fishery by (to me) cry out for in-season management. Develop in-season updates based on catches in the harbor. It means that catches have to be sampled and posted within a few days rather than weeks but it would allow managers to at least have an idea of what is going on. Auto-pilot management leads to situations like this.

I will add, though, that just because there are wide open fisheries does not mean the hatchery won't have surplusses. Back in the 80s, the Puyallups fished Commencement Bay and the river 7 days a week. There was also the rec fishery in the Bay and river. The hatchery still exceeded its needs by 20-30K. In fairness to the whole story, there eventually was year when the goal may not have been reached. But in that system at that time wide open fisheries still missed fish. But, even then, the managers reviewed the situation daily.