Almost forgot, one has to go to the modeled commercial harvest then to the actual harvest on WDFW's website. Then compare those to see if the numbers reflect lower or higher than expected which then lets you get a better feel for things. Bottom line Chinook look to be over performing as are Coho. How much is always the fun part as it gets right down to the "gut" thing.

Think of it this way, by harvest Chum crashed but we know that a huge number went up on the brown out reducing anticipated catch. So are the Chum over or under performing? This is where the gut thing is subjective and why for Coho I use Bingham for Coho. Weirs stop the fish making the count absolute so you can get a feel for Coho. You can be way ahead on early rain years in Oct. but into Nov loose some on the count that came in early with the rain.

One final thing, DW has been tracking the Nooch for many years and gets the trap reports at the dam. This years Coho returns to the Wynoochee appear to below expectations and historical performance which is a red flag. So lots of good signs but also some red flags.