Question ( cleaned the verbiage a bit / whole lot ) : How accurate is the preseason Coho forecast over the years?

Several asked this in.. ah ..little more colorful manner so here is what I could find. The forecast evaluation tab in the forecast model has not been updated for a bit but from 2001 to 2012 it varied substantially by years but seemed to run in several year trends. 01 to 03 underestimated the returns, 04 to 07 over estimated the returns, 08 nailed right on the money, 09 & 10 underestimated the return but just some, 11 overestimated again but just some, and 2012 blew it big time and were short around 50,000 of the forecast. I imagine the years since will have the same pattern.

A quick compilation of thoughts on this years forecast. 2020 Coho jack returns to the hatchery were X4 previous year, and in 2020 the guys fishing jacks got more wild than hatchery. In 2020 the jacks and adults returning were down right fat indicating they ate well in the ocean. The PDO for this years return is favorable which the large Columbia returns seem to indicate came out well. Two guys who track this type thing thought the Grays Harbor Coho would perform similar to the Columbia hatchery returns.

So what gives, no idea. For myself it is if both WDFW and the QIN staff agree to a forecast then that is it. It does not matter that I have the questions outlined it is a done deal but something just does not feel right about the forecast. That is the difference between a citizen and the co managers as they manage by what the math says not by their gut or feelings.

Still something just does not feel right.