Comparing the numbers for this years returns to last years are a bit of apples to oranges to be sure. That is why I caution folks not to take it as an absolute because you have many variables besides harvest. That said 300% to 400% increases on the same number of smolt released are not a preseason forecast misstep. If that was so the normal timed Coho return would have been in the 186k to 248k range which is not in the realm of real.

Preseason forecast are simply data driven best guesses and always wrong to some degree. Years back I asked the harvest manager RWS how accurate his forecast numbers were? His response " plus or minus 100% " which is a rather straight forward response.

Little edit: I have sent the 2021 preseason forecast model, the 2021 harvest model, and the historical escapement spread sheet to everyone who has asked for them. Staff provides them each year and the preseason forecast model has the historical data to compare. It also breaks out past NT Rec, NT Commercial and QIN harvest down to the tributary level right along with escapement. Frankly they are really helpful to get a feel for what is what. So again if anyone wants them just PM me and I will send them right over.