As a past manager I would be reasonably happy with the Chinook and chum catches as they really aren't far off. Coho is.

Back in the late 80s we had some interesting days on the Fraser. The ISU suggested that we had about 750K Adams/Lower Shushwap available for harvest by Canada. Their internal allocation system (they did not learn from the US on allocation idiocy as they went to the hundredth of a percent) gave the fish to the seiners. But, they had to fish Area 29, which is the lower Fraser where they had never fished. Went in and in 4 hours took the 750K. A big OOPS was avoided because DFO was watching/listening and shut it down.

Turns out the 750K was not there; fish were going up and downstream across the echo sounder and being counted multiple times. So, in actuality, there was no surplus.

The policy folks, especially the US ones who had never managed a fish in their life, went bonkers. How could such an error be made? The managers? S**t, it was less than 10% of the run. Our ISU was pretty good.

The upside is that the harvest centered on a couple of abundant components of the escapement and missed less abundant ones which the Panel (staff) were trying to increase to get better spawner distribution which would increase future production.

Upshot is that there are a lot of factors that go into understanding just how successful management efforts were in a given year. Helps, though, if the escapement goals are higher than Noah was allowed.