Couple of things missing from the conversation. First missing the QIN harvest numbers ( which WDFW says the QIN will not provide ) it is difficult to say exactly what is going on. That said the Satsop hatchery returns are around 1/3 of what was expected and wild mirrored them. It rained early and the Coho were up way early so both QIN and Nt fishers were well below expectations and bad prices brought commercial effort to a dead stop. The Chum came in strong but with reduuced effort how much is fish not taken in the commercial harvest is really a guess. With the rain up and down several times the Chehalis Basin has had the best freshwater conditions in many years. Fishing has and is good inland but that does not translate to large runsize but rather great conditions to fish and a fair amount of fish.

Always remember hatchery Coho are a bonus it is about the wild spawners period, put a fork in it, nothing else matters. Without QIN harvest numbers ( somebody should thank Ed Johnstone for that ) it is difficult to have a clear picture of what has and is happening. Frankly I would bet Chinook do not make escapement and 2 to 1 that Coho do not for the Chehalis Basin.

From what I have seen Chum came in at or above expectations. What was missing was the substantial number of Coho normaly present depending on what week of the year varies but for NT it is around 4 Coho to 5 Chum. For the QIN it is different but they hang out at at about the same in prime Chum weeks. The Chum were there but the Coho were not. Looking at harvest NT on Coho were 25% or so overall.

So you look at the hatchery returns which was supposed to be around 40k after QIN NT and Rec harvest one could say we have a problem. If the wild run mirrors the hatchery which it normally does and appears to be doing it is most likely we do not to make Chehalis Basin Coho escapement.