My look at the 2020 thing was driven by looking at GH Chinook the 4 & 5 year age groups perform about the same proportionally. The 3 and 6 year age group are in small numbers but the 3 year number can move up or down in any given year substantially. I do not have a Willapa run reconstruction but it really does not matter much. In 2019 the Willapa River will have 10% of the prior hatchery releases but the 5 year class will be present at the full release in prior years resulting in a much larger number of HOS. Bit of a train wreck to manage I imagine. It is hard to stare into a crystal ball and be accurate but fish math does let one look at probable outcomes and the scenarios that they to dictate harvest.

In 2020 the Willapa River be a stand alone population with a hatchery release of 300 K and change. Harvest will have to be dramatically reduced in the North end of the bay. The only variable is HOW the much much smaller allowed harvest is structured.

Edited by Rivrguy (02/20/18 06:57 AM)
Dazed and confused.............the fog is closing in