Let us add this to the mix. Two things are really present and they are that the QIN regs require a 8 1/2 mesh which will pass a lot of Coho and smaller fish which was the purpose. The QIN effort ( number of fishers ) is way way down and they could not go full in the South Channel which really effected the harvest numbers. The early start date targeted the Summers and they really were a no show but getting a feel for it is difficult as the fish are not staging. So SF nailed the run forecast being off on Chinook but how much will play out but I have seen this pattern before so I will land on depending on harvest impacts the run looks to be in the small end near escapement.

Coho are different. As last year they are coming through the bay and right up the river. The numbers look similar to last year ( after harvest above the nets ) and the vast majority of fish I have seen are robust and in good shape liced up. The jacks have been present in good numbers and many are larger and fatter than normal which is a good sign. Now the down side, this move right up the river bit is similar to a rain movement as they are moving right up the river with tight lips. You can see them in places as they go by and see some jumping but mostly they are just moving through ignoring things unless you in the right spot. Makes catching a bitch for many especially in the tidewater. Oh and the seals came back in numbers several days ago chasing fish which is a positive .............. sorta?

Also this. By week the QIN were 135 - 3 days / 113 - 5 days / 45 - 2 days / 759 - 2 days. Notice the drop the third week which is normal, the drop that is. We have summers at the front that creates a wave in the graph line so the wave is there but the fish are missing in numbers and keep in mind the effort. The 759 with as little effort as the QIN fishers put in but is still not good except that was two days with few fishers. Normally when the summers tank the back of the run picks up and out performs the front but seldom makes up the reduced loss to the overall number.

Last but not least the modeled Coho for the weeks posted was 366 and actual is 305 which considering the low pressure by the QIN ( they are modeled based on past performance with many more fishers ) says so far the Coho are at or above preseason forecast.

Edited by Rivrguy (09/27/16 09:06 AM)
Dazed and confused.............the fog is closing in